Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ariados's top six counters needs 1.27 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.48 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:51. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Ariados · Tier 5

bugpoison

Weak to

flyingrockfirepsychic

Boss CP: 25,413
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ariados at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.75)	2(1.78)	3(2.09)	8:12	6.0
Level 25	2(1.50)	2(1.55)	2(1.81)	7:09	5.8
Level 30	2(1.26)	2(1.38)	2(1.62)	6:20	5.7
Level 35	2(1.22)	2(1.32)	2(1.54)	6:04	5.5
Level 40	2(1.16)	2(1.27)	2(1.48)	5:51	5.4
Level 45	2(1.09)	2(1.22)	2(1.43)	5:37	5.2
Level 50	2(1.06)	2(1.17)	2(1.38)	5:24	5.1

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.16

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.16
Rayquaza1.20
Mewtwo1.26
Reshiram1.28
Salamence1.34
Moltres1.39

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Toucannon1.42
Volcarona1.45
Cinderace1.46
Staraptor1.48
Heatran1.48
Chandelure1.50

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Mewtwo

Confusion + Psystrike

4. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

5. Salamence

Fire Fang + Fly

6. Moltres

Fire Spin + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Ariados · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.