Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 49,286
- Boss HP
- 15,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 5(4.49) | 5(4.29) | 5(4.82) | 19:43 | 6.0 |
| Level 25 | 4(3.57) | 4(3.38) | 4(3.94) | 15:34 | 6.0 |
| Level 30 | 4(3.24) | 3(2.92) | 4(3.48) | 13:25 | 6.0 |
| Level 35 | 3(2.65) | 3(2.69) | 4(3.32) | 12:24 | 6.0 |
| Level 40 | 3(2.42) | 3(2.56) | 4(3.15) | 11:47 | 6.0 |
| Level 45 | 3(2.34) | 3(2.47) | 3(2.99) | 11:23 | 6.0 |
| Level 50 | 3(2.23) | 3(2.39) | 3(2.89) | 10:59 | 6.0 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
3 trainers at level 40
- Regieleki2.42
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Regieleki2.42
- Kartana2.51
- Zeraora2.52
- Xurkitree2.54
- Thundurus (Therian)2.64
- Shaymin (Sky)2.74
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
4 trainers at level 40
- Raikou3.02
- Meowscarada3.02
- Zapdos3.03
- Magnezone3.05
- Tapu Bulu3.09
- Kyurem (Black)3.08
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Arceus (Water) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.