Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 6 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Arceus (Ground)'s top six counters needs 4.34 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 5.23 (round up: 6). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:58. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Arceus (Ground) · Elite

ground

Weak to

watergrassice

Boss CP: 56,910
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Arceus (Ground) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	8(7.00)	8(7.07)	10(9.22)	32:32	6.0
Level 25	5(4.70)	6(5.40)	8(7.22)	24:50	6.0
Level 30	5(4.16)	5(4.76)	6(5.95)	21:55	6.0
Level 35	4(3.92)	5(4.60)	6(5.65)	21:09	6.0
Level 40	4(3.75)	5(4.34)	6(5.23)	19:58	6.0
Level 45	4(3.60)	5(4.22)	5(4.95)	19:25	6.0
Level 50	4(3.48)	5(4.07)	5(4.78)	18:43	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)3.75

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)3.75
Kartana4.17
Kyurem (Black)4.20
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)4.56
Kyogre4.67
Zarude4.69

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

6 trainers at level 40

Primarina5.03
Inteleon5.13
Greninja5.18
Xurkitree5.20
Decidueye5.20
Eternatus5.23

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

3. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

4. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Ice Fang + Behemoth Bash

5. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

6. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

See the full ranked counter list for Arceus (Ground) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.