Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 49,286
- Boss HP
- 15,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 3(2.59) | 4(3.17) | 5(4.58) | 14:36 | 6.0 |
| Level 25 | 3(2.20) | 3(2.75) | 4(3.86) | 12:39 | 6.0 |
| Level 30 | 3(2.02) | 3(2.44) | 4(3.47) | 11:12 | 5.9 |
| Level 35 | 2(1.96) | 3(2.35) | 4(3.29) | 10:49 | 5.9 |
| Level 40 | 2(1.81) | 3(2.24) | 4(3.06) | 10:18 | 5.8 |
| Level 45 | 2(1.76) | 3(2.18) | 3(2.97) | 10:01 | 5.7 |
| Level 50 | 2(1.71) | 3(2.08) | 3(2.89) | 9:34 | 5.6 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
2 trainers at level 40
- Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.81
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.81
- Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.83
- Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.90
- Metagross2.57
- Eternatus2.58
- Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.73
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
4 trainers at level 40
- Genesect2.95
- Genesect (Burn)2.95
- Genesect (Chill)2.95
- Genesect (Douse)2.95
- Genesect (Shock)2.95
- Lucario2.98
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Arceus (Fairy) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.