Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 49,286
- Boss HP
- 15,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 4(3.54) | 4(3.83) | 5(4.51) | 17:37 | 6.0 |
| Level 25 | 3(2.65) | 4(3.21) | 4(3.74) | 14:46 | 6.0 |
| Level 30 | 3(2.36) | 3(2.78) | 4(3.39) | 12:48 | 5.9 |
| Level 35 | 3(2.18) | 3(2.57) | 4(3.24) | 11:50 | 5.9 |
| Level 40 | 3(2.13) | 3(2.46) | 4(3.04) | 11:19 | 5.9 |
| Level 45 | 3(2.08) | 3(2.36) | 3(2.94) | 10:51 | 5.9 |
| Level 50 | 2(2.00) | 3(2.25) | 3(2.84) | 10:22 | 5.9 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
3 trainers at level 40
- Keldeo2.13
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Keldeo2.13
- Kartana2.40
- Lucario2.45
- Terrakion2.45
- Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.64
- Blaziken2.71
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
4 trainers at level 40
- Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.98
- Tapu Koko3.00
- Gallade3.02
- Genesect3.04
- Genesect (Burn)3.04
- Genesect (Chill)3.04
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Arceus (Dark) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.