Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Alakazam's top six counters needs 4.27 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.84 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:38. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Alakazam · Super Mega

psychic

Weak to

bugghostdark

Boss CP: 89,993
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Alakazam at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.45)	7(6.98)	8(7.80)	32:06	6.0
Level 25	5(4.79)	6(5.71)	7(6.59)	26:18	6.0
Level 30	5(4.16)	5(4.96)	6(5.45)	22:49	6.0
Level 35	5(4.05)	5(4.53)	6(5.08)	20:51	6.0
Level 40	4(3.95)	5(4.27)	5(4.84)	19:38	6.0
Level 45	4(3.86)	5(4.17)	5(4.61)	19:11	6.0
Level 50	4(3.56)	5(4.01)	5(4.46)	18:26	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.95

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.95
Giratina (Origin)4.29
Eternatus4.32
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)4.31
Darkrai4.33
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)4.40

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)4.64
Volcarona4.64
Kyurem (Black)4.66
Yveltal4.72
Tyranitar4.76
Mewtwo4.81

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Giratina (Origin)

Shadow Claw + Shadow Force

3. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

4. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Shadow Claw + Sunsteel Strike

5. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

6. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Alakazam · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.