Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Alakazam's top six counters needs 3.80 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.31 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 17:41. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Alakazam · Mega Legendary

psychic

Weak to

bugghostdark

Boss CP: 85,375
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Alakazam at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.85)	7(6.23)	7(6.90)	28:57	6.0
Level 25	5(4.24)	6(5.08)	6(5.86)	23:36	6.0
Level 30	4(3.71)	5(4.42)	5(4.87)	20:34	6.0
Level 35	4(3.62)	5(4.06)	5(4.52)	18:51	6.0
Level 40	4(3.52)	4(3.80)	5(4.31)	17:41	6.0
Level 45	4(3.44)	4(3.73)	5(4.11)	17:19	6.0
Level 50	4(3.15)	4(3.57)	4(3.97)	16:35	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.52

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.52
Eternatus3.84
Darkrai3.85
Giratina (Origin)3.86
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)3.85
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.91

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Volcarona4.15
Zacian (Crowned Sword)4.15
Kyurem (Black)4.18
Tyranitar4.17
Yveltal4.20
Mewtwo4.27

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

3. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

4. Giratina (Origin)

Shadow Claw + Shadow Force

5. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Shadow Claw + Sunsteel Strike

6. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Alakazam · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.