Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 44,025
- Boss HP
- 20,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 3(2.87) | 4(3.87) | 6(5.07) | 17:49 | 6.0 |
| Level 25 | 3(2.60) | 4(3.16) | 5(4.21) | 14:33 | 6.0 |
| Level 30 | 3(2.33) | 3(2.72) | 4(3.67) | 12:31 | 5.9 |
| Level 35 | 3(2.25) | 3(2.58) | 4(3.48) | 11:53 | 5.9 |
| Level 40 | 3(2.08) | 3(2.44) | 4(3.35) | 11:15 | 5.9 |
| Level 45 | 3(2.03) | 3(2.36) | 4(3.24) | 10:52 | 5.8 |
| Level 50 | 2(1.98) | 3(2.28) | 4(3.09) | 10:30 | 5.7 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
3 trainers at level 40
- Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.08
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.08
- Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.12
- Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.25
- Kyurem (White)2.53
- Kyurem (Black)2.81
- Zeraora2.88
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
4 trainers at level 40
- Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.24
- Dialga (Origin)3.27
- Quaquaval3.28
- Eternatus3.30
- Melmetal3.34
- Dialga3.34
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Aerodactyl · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.