Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Aerodactyl's top six counters needs 1.46 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.96 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 6:43. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Aerodactyl · Tier 5

rockflying

Weak to

rocksteelwaterelectricice

Boss CP: 38,126
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Aerodactyl at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.76)	3(2.13)	3(2.85)	9:48	6.0
Level 25	2(1.54)	2(1.84)	3(2.47)	8:27	5.9
Level 30	2(1.36)	2(1.61)	3(2.18)	7:25	5.8
Level 35	2(1.32)	2(1.52)	3(2.06)	6:59	5.8
Level 40	2(1.28)	2(1.46)	2(1.96)	6:43	5.7
Level 45	2(1.20)	2(1.40)	2(1.89)	6:26	5.6
Level 50	2(1.18)	2(1.34)	2(1.81)	6:10	5.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.28

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.28
Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.30
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.35
Kyurem (White)1.49
Kyurem (Black)1.62
Xurkitree1.72

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.87
Kyogre1.87
Dialga (Origin)1.93
Eternatus1.92
Lucario1.96
Rampardos1.95

The party these numbers assume

1. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

5. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

6. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

See the full ranked counter list for Aerodactyl · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.