Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Absol's top six counters needs 2.10 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.68 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:45. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 50.

Mega Absol · Primal

dark

Weak to

fightingbugfairy

Boss CP: 59,425
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Absol at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.04)	4(3.29)	5(4.45)	15:18	6.0
Level 25	3(2.61)	3(2.77)	4(3.52)	12:54	6.0
Level 30	2(1.97)	3(2.33)	4(3.04)	10:49	6.0
Level 35	2(1.90)	3(2.19)	3(2.85)	10:10	6.0
Level 40	2(1.79)	3(2.10)	3(2.68)	9:45	6.0
Level 45	2(1.72)	3(2.02)	3(2.59)	9:22	6.0
Level 50	2(1.69)	2(1.94)	3(2.49)	9:02	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Keldeo1.79

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Keldeo1.79
Terrakion2.09
Lucario2.09
Kartana2.14
Blaziken2.22
Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.25

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Gallade2.60
Raikou2.62
Tapu Bulu2.66
Hisuian Decidueye2.67
Latios2.71
Machamp2.69

The party these numbers assume

1. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

2. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

3. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

4. Kartana

Fury Cutter + Sacred Sword

5. Blaziken

Counter + Aura Sphere

6. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Absol · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.