Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Abomasnow's top six counters needs 2.25 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.61 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 10:21. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Abomasnow · Super Mega

grassice

Weak to

firefightingflyingpoisonrockbug

Boss CP: 57,868
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Abomasnow at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.51)	4(3.42)	4(3.84)	15:44	6.0
Level 25	3(2.78)	3(2.85)	4(3.25)	13:06	6.0
Level 30	3(2.15)	3(2.49)	3(2.87)	11:26	5.9
Level 35	3(2.01)	3(2.35)	3(2.73)	10:50	5.8
Level 40	2(1.91)	3(2.25)	3(2.61)	10:21	5.8
Level 45	2(1.81)	3(2.17)	3(2.51)	10:00	5.7
Level 50	2(1.76)	3(2.08)	3(2.42)	9:35	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.91

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.91
Reshiram2.13
Heatran2.31
Volcarona2.32
Cinderace2.37
Darmanitan (Standard)2.45

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.51
Entei2.55
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.57
Moltres2.58
Incineroar2.57
Volcanion2.59

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

4. Volcarona

Fire Spin + Overheat

5. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

6. Darmanitan (Standard)

Fire Fang + Overheat

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Abomasnow · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.