Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Abomasnow's top six counters needs 2.01 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.32 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:20. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 45.

Mega Abomasnow · Primal

grassice

Weak to

firefightingflyingpoisonrockbug

Boss CP: 54,899
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Abomasnow at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.10)	4(3.05)	4(3.41)	14:09	6.0
Level 25	3(2.45)	3(2.54)	3(2.89)	11:48	6.0
Level 30	2(1.91)	3(2.21)	3(2.56)	10:16	5.9
Level 35	2(1.80)	3(2.10)	3(2.43)	9:46	5.8
Level 40	2(1.71)	3(2.01)	3(2.32)	9:20	5.8
Level 45	2(1.62)	2(1.94)	3(2.23)	9:01	5.7
Level 50	2(1.57)	2(1.85)	3(2.15)	8:37	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.71

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon1.71
Reshiram1.91
Heatran2.06
Volcarona2.07
Cinderace2.11
Darmanitan (Standard)2.20

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.24
Entei2.27
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.28
Moltres2.28
Incineroar2.29
Volcanion2.30

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

4. Volcarona

Fire Spin + Overheat

5. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

6. Darmanitan (Standard)

Fire Fang + Overheat

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Abomasnow · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.