Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Abomasnow's top six counters needs 0.79 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.92 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:41. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Abomasnow · Mega

grassice

Weak to

firefightingflyingpoisonrockbug

Boss CP: 34,721
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Abomasnow at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.16)	2(1.20)	2(1.35)	5:36	6.0
Level 25	1(0.97)	2(1.01)	2(1.16)	4:42	5.9
Level 30	1(0.74)	1(0.87)	2(1.01)	4:04	5.6
Level 35	1(0.70)	1(0.83)	1(0.97)	3:51	5.4
Level 40	1(0.67)	1(0.79)	1(0.92)	3:41	5.4
Level 45	1(0.65)	1(0.77)	1(0.89)	3:34	5.2
Level 50	1(0.62)	1(0.73)	1(0.85)	3:24	5.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.67

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.67
Reshiram0.76
Heatran0.81
Volcarona0.83
Cinderace0.84
Blaziken0.86

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dusk Mane)0.90
Moltres0.89
Entei0.90
Chandelure0.92
Incineroar0.90
Charizard0.91

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

4. Volcarona

Fire Spin + Overheat

5. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

6. Blaziken

Fire Spin + Blast Burn

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Abomasnow · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.